What the 2026 Canadian Black Book & Fitch Report Means for Used Car Buyers and Sellers

The Big Picture: Canada's Used Car Market Is Normalizing — Downward

After three years of extraordinary value retention driven by pandemic-era supply shortages, the Canadian used vehicle market is completing a correction that CBB and Fitch have been forecasting. The CBB Wholesale Used Vehicle Retention Index now sits at 127.9 as of July 2026 — down 3.9% year-to-date and 7.7% year-over-year. The last time the index was at this level was August 2021, before the supply shortage drove values to historic peaks.

To understand how significant this is: the index rose 32.4% during the global supply shortage of 2021–2023. Since the peak, it has declined 22.4%. The correction is real, it is ongoing, and the CBB-Fitch forecast projects it continuing through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

"A deepening relationship with traditional and increased depreciation is developing, bringing used car market retention levels closer to pre-pandemic form." — Canadian Black Book, 2026 Vehicle Depreciation Report

Week-over-week wholesale adjustments are consistently negative. New car supply has stabilized with increased incentive spending, which reduces used vehicle demand from the inside. U.S. buyers — who previously provided a meaningful outlet for Canadian used vehicle supply — have become less active due to cross-border tariff costs. Both internal and external demand supports are weakening simultaneously.

The Macro Context: Why This Is Happening Now

The depreciation acceleration is not happening in isolation. The CBB-Fitch report situates it within a specific macroeconomic environment that Canadian used car owners need to understand.

Canada entered a technical recession in Q1 2026

The Canadian economy entered a technical recession in Q1 2026, driven by declining investment and a surge in imports. Fitch projects GDP growth of only 0.7% for the full year 2026, down from 1.9% in 2025. This is the economic backdrop against which used vehicle depreciation is accelerating.

Unemployment elevated — BC and Saskatchewan lagging

Fitch forecasts the average unemployment to remain elevated at 6.8% in 2026. Regional disparities remain, with Saskatchewan and British Columbia lagging. For BC-based used car sellers and buyers, this regional employment weakness is a direct factor in local demand conditions — buyers are more cautious, financing is more restrictive, and transaction timelines are longer.

Household debt at 179.6% of income

Consumer spending is expected to slow to 1.6% in 2026 from 2.3% in 2025 as income growth softens and household debt-to-income ratios, already at 179.6% in Q1 2026, begin rising again. At this debt level, discretionary spending on vehicle upgrades compresses. Buyers who might have stretched to a newer or higher-trim vehicle in 2022 are making more conservative decisions in 2026.

CUSMA uncertainty adding pressure

Following the U.S. administration's decision not to renew CUSMA by July 1, 2026, the agreement is now subject to annual reviews. Additionally, Section 338 tariffs — a 50% levy on select Canadian goods announced in July — and potential retaliatory tariffs add further uncertainty to the automotive sector specifically. Cross-border used vehicle trade, which previously helped absorb Canadian used inventory, is constrained by these tariff dynamics.

Segment-Level Depreciation: Not All Vehicles Are Equal

The most actionable data in the CBB-Fitch report is the segment-level breakdown of 2025 depreciation — which establishes the trajectory carrying into 2026. The divergence between passenger cars and light trucks is the defining feature of the current market.

If you own a sedan — Camry, Accord, Corolla, Civic, or any full-size or sub-compact car — the CBB data confirms what dealership-level observation has been showing for months. The depreciation is real, it is faster than historical norms, and it is not expected to reverse in the near term.

The 4-Year Retention Collapse: What It Means for 2022 Model Year Vehicles

One of the most significant findings in the 2026 report relates to 4-year retained value — the percentage of original MSRP a vehicle holds four years after purchase. This metric directly affects anyone who bought a vehicle in 2022 and is now considering selling or trading.

The forecast retention level of 4-year-old vehicles in 2026 is 10.2% below last year. This comes after a 6.9% decline in 2025 versus 2024. The compounding effect of two consecutive years of accelerating 4-year retention decline means that 2022 model year vehicles are losing value significantly faster than their owners may have anticipated when they purchased.

What Is Actually Holding Value in 2026

Not everything is declining equally. The CBB-Fitch report identifies specific segments and vehicle types where retention remains comparatively strong — and the pattern is consistent with what we are seeing at the dealership level.

Domestically built full-size pickups and SUVs

There is still a component in the finer points of the market, such as domestic-branded SUVs and Pick-ups, which retain strong value as U.S. demand hasn't entirely fallen off for them. Models built south of the border are concentrated in these particular segments, sheltered from cross-border used vehicle tariff costs due to this logistical advantage. F-150, Silverado, Ram 1500, and domestically-built SUVs maintain stronger positioning than tariff-exposed imported vehicles.

Compact crossovers and luxury compact crossovers

The Compact Luxury Crossover segment recorded the best depreciation performance of 2025 at only -5.1%. The broader compact crossover segment at -7.4% was the strongest non-luxury performer. CR-V, RAV4, Mazda CX-5, and comparable compact SUVs continue to demonstrate the structural demand strength that has defined this segment for several years.

Hybrids — the fastest-growing powertrain

Incentives have increased, hybrids emerged as the fastest-growing powertrain, and EV adoption remains an uncertain environment. Hybrid vehicles — particularly Toyota's hybrid lineup (RAV4 Hybrid, Camry Hybrid, Highlander Hybrid) — are showing stronger retention than their non-hybrid equivalents. As fuel prices remain elevated, hybrid demand is structurally supported in a way that pure ICE vehicles in the same segments are not.

The EV Picture: Supply Growing, Values Under Pressure

The CBB-Fitch report dedicates significant attention to the electric vehicle segment, and the picture for used EV values in Canada is complex.

EV supply will grow from roughly 35,000 units last year to 50,000+ units this year, an increase of 47%. Representing only 4% of the overall supply of used vehicles, EVs will continue to grow at an increasing rate.

BEVs continue to lag in value retention compared to ICE and hybrid vehicles and this gap is expected to persist through 2026 as off-lease BEV supply increases and newer, more competitively priced and technologically advanced models continue to enter the market.

The reintroduction of federal EV purchase incentives through the Electric Vehicle Affordability Program (EVAP) in February 2026 provides some demand support. However, any demand support from these measures is expected to be more than offset by growing EV off-lease supply, pricing pressure from lower-cost Chinese imports and newer, more technologically advanced models.

The Auto Loan Stress Picture — Why Buyers Are More Cautious

The Fitch component of the report provides the financing side of the market picture, which directly affects used vehicle transaction volumes and pricing.

Fitch expects continued asset performance deterioration in Canadian auto loan asset-backed securities in 2026 relative to 2025, driven by high household debt, a soft labour market, higher energy prices, and ongoing trade uncertainty weighing on household finances and consumer confidence.

Practically: more Canadian buyers are carrying more debt, more are experiencing income pressure, and fewer are in a position to stretch on a vehicle purchase. The 60+ day delinquency rate on auto loans reached 0.27% in June 2026, up from 0.17% a year earlier. The annualized net loss rate reached 0.57% in June 2026 — above pre-pandemic levels.

For sellers, this means the buyer pool for higher-priced used vehicles is contracting. Buyers who would have financed a $30,000 vehicle in 2022 are looking at $22,000–$25,000 options in 2026. Pricing needs to reflect this affordability compression, not the seller's memory of what the vehicle was worth two years ago.

What to Do With This Information

If you are selling a passenger car

The CBB data is unambiguous. Passenger car depreciation is accelerating, the buyer pool is contracting, and the market is not expected to reverse. If you are holding a sedan waiting for values to recover, the data does not support that strategy. Price at current market, not at peak 2022–2023 comparables. Every month of delay represents additional value loss.

If you are selling a compact SUV, RAV4, or CR-V

You are in the strongest seller segment in the current market. Compact crossovers are showing the best relative retention. That does not mean values are rising — they are declining, just more slowly than everything else. The seasonal window for maximum value in BC (April through September) is narrowing. August remains a good month to transact.

If you are selling a pickup truck

Full-size and small pickups are showing the strongest retention in the report — particularly domestically built models. If you own a Canadian or US-built F-150, Silverado, or Ram, your vehicle is in the most defensible position in the current market. That said, even pickup values are declining — just at a slower rate than cars. Domestically-built origin provides a tariff advantage that imported trucks do not have.

If you are buying

The depreciation environment creates a genuine buyer opportunity — particularly in the passenger car and full-size vehicle segments. Prices are lower than they have been in three years, and the sellers who have been waiting are increasingly motivated to transact. If you need a vehicle and can tolerate the ongoing value decline of a sedan, 2026 offers the best used car pricing in the post-pandemic period.

Key Takeaways from the 2026 CBB-Fitch Report

• The CBB Wholesale Retention Index is at 127.9 as of July 2026 — down 7.7% year-over-year and at its lowest level since August 2021. Week-over-week adjustments remain consistently negative.
• Passenger cars are depreciating at up to -16% in 2026. Eight of the ten worst-depreciating segments are passenger cars. Full-size cars, sub-compact cars, and compact vans are the hardest hit.
• Light trucks are holding below -10% overall. Compact luxury crossovers (-5.1% in 2025) and small pickups (-5.4%) are the strongest performers.
• 4-year retained value is forecast 10.2% below 2025 — meaning 2022 model year vehicles are losing value faster than their owners anticipated at purchase.
• Canada entered a technical recession in Q1 2026. Unemployment at 6.8%, household debt at 179.6% of income, and CUSMA uncertainty are compressing buyer purchasing power and transaction volume.
• Hybrids are the fastest-growing powertrain in Canada. Hybrid retention is outperforming equivalent ICE vehicles.
• Used EV supply is growing 47% in 2026. BEV value retention continues to lag ICE and hybrid vehicles, with further pressure expected from Chinese imports and newer models.
• Domestically built full-size pickups and SUVs maintain the strongest relative value position — partially shielded from cross-border tariff costs by their US/Canadian manufacturing origin.